Are OECD projections accurate?
A post-mortem on Economic Outlook projections OECD projections are just that, projections and not predictions. Analysis enriches the projections and provides a framework for evaluating outcomes and recommending policy changes. As to the risks, analysis can only point to them, it cannot say precisely which ones will occur or when. Economics is not an exact science. It deals ultimately with human behaviour, which changes based on experience and expectations. And it must strive to adapt as economies and economic systems evolve. The OECD regularly reviews its projections for accuracy. A main purpose of these reviews is to isolate whether errors are due to data revisions, to the non-realisation of underlying assumptions or to judgmental mistakes about economic conditions and forces shaping the outlook. Indeed sometimes projections show current policies leading to unsatisfactory outcomes, which may lead to policy changes, in turn showing up as (desirable) projection errors. Large projection
