Are There Any Reliable Semiconductor Forecasters Remaining?
(Marketwire Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) SARATOGA, CA, November 24 / MARKET WIRE/ — It seems that all forecasters have recently changed their IC Revenue forecasts downward for 2008 and 2009. Some, who originally predicted 2008 to grow by approximately 8%, have revised their numbers to -2%. Are there any forecasters out there who did not have to modify their story to become accurate? Yes. There is one forecaster, whose policy is to calculate a prediction keeping it unchanged. It advised its clients on December 10, 2007, that IC revenues in 2008 would decline within a range of 0 to -4 percent, contrary to other well known industry forecasters. The firm is Advanced Forecasting, a Silicon Valley quantitative forecasting group that specializes in predicting the timing of peaks and troughs of the Silicon Cycle and the demand for related industries. It seems now, at year-end, that most forecasters have been converging toward AF’s forecast via numerous modifications. “Market players, whether t
