As National Lead Narrows Somewhat, Are States Getting Closer, Too?
While national polling indicates a somewhat narrowed race from a month ago–Obama now has an aggregate lead in our daily tracking average of a little over +6%–this effect carries through only in some states. As of this morning, Obama maintains a commanding, “Safe” lead in almost all of the states won by John Kerry in 2004 plus Iowa, for a total of 239 “Safe” electoral votes. McCain now safely holds on to 127 electoral votes. These numbers, of course, suggest a strong structural advantage for Obama in the electoral college, especially considering that his average leads in these “Safe” states rise to or well above the 50% mark. But something interesting is going on: in a some of the swing and red-leaning states that went for Bush in 2004, but in which Obama has been leading in recent weeks–Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Missouri–the momentum seems to be with McCain over the past two-three days. The most recent polls indicate that the race may be moving
