Can future juvenile crime trends be predicted?
Changes in juvenile violent crime arrests are not closely tied to changes in the juvenile population History shows that it is a fool’s errand to try to predict future crime trends. The first edition of this publication series, using 1992 data, speculated about future juvenile violence. Assuming that the arrest rate would continue to grow as it had in the previous 5 years or that the rate would hold constant, increased juvenile violence was anticipated. Some researchers even predicted a coming bloodbath. Since these predictions, murders by juveniles have declined remarkably, and the juvenile violent crime arrest rate in 1997 was at its lowest level in the 1990’s. It would be simple to predict the future if juvenile violent crime trends were primarily related to changes in the size of the juvenile population. But as recent arrest trends clearly show, the number of juvenile arrests for violent crimes is unrelated to the size of the juvenile population. From 1987 to 1994, while the juvenil
