Could Kirsten Gillibrand Lose in New York?
If you’ve been following the New York Senate polls closely for the last year, you’ve noticed that Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has been hovering around 50 percent for most of the past two years. This is dangerous territory for any incumbent to be in – by my count, only three incumbents in the last three years who averaged less than 50 percent in August polling have gone on to win in November. But it was still something of a surprise when a flurry of likely voter polls taken shortly after the September 14 primary showed a very close race. A Rasmussen Reports poll showed Gillibrand leading Republican Joseph DioGuardi by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent. Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA showed Gillibrand with 6- and 1-point leads. Marist weighed in with a poll showing Gillibrand up 11 points, but among registered voters who described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting, Gillibrand actually trailed DioGuardi, 52 percent to 43 percent. So what are we to make of this? Could Gi
