Do Polls Limit Wishful Thinking?
Previous studies of election predictions have emphasized the effect wishful thinking has on predictions. Wishful thinking was evident in predictions made by partisan respondents to the 2006 Israel Election Study, but does not fully explain the observed variation even when controlling for levels of knowledge and political engagement. To test whether this wishful thinking is the result of a failure to recall the latest polls accurately, or an inability to use this information, we showed some people the latest polls before they make their predictions using a concurrent internet survey-experiment. Others were asked to recall each party’s polling numbers. We found that showing respondents the latest polls influenced their predictions for smaller parties, but not for large, well-known parties. For well-known parties, even well-educated and politically engaged respondents did not offer predictions consistent with the polls. However, prompting respondents to recall the latest polls caused our
