Do the Boise St. Broncos deserve to fall in the polls after beating New Mexico State 59-0?
Two-thirds of a team’s schedule is determined by the conference they play in. Boise State plays in the WAC, and thus has 6 or 7 games against teams that frequent the bottom third of the computer rankings. New Mexico State is one of those. There is a mathematical concept called Bayesian Inference which attempts to deal with uncertain probabilities by improving an estimated probability based on new information. The adjustments to the rankings typically follow a pattern similar to this principle, with each week adding to the pool of existing knowledge. Before this week we knew Boise State was a top 5 team and very likely to run the table with the schedule they have. The odds they finish in the top 5 are very likely. We learned very little this week. A close win would have even weaken the confidence in this belief. For all other teams in the top 5 it is likely that a loss will show up along the way. Oregon passed obliterated a major road block (beating a top 15 team) and a couple of the te
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