Does an early occurrence give any indication of summer time temperatures?
By looking at the table below, one would say NO since half of the early occurrence years have been ABOVE the 1971-2000 normal and half have been BELOW the 1971-2000 normal. However, of the seven years that were above normal, all of them but 1947 have occurred since 1988 (see chart below table). With the current trend of above normal temperatures and the CPC forecast of enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures, it would appear that this CAN provide an indication of summer temperatures.
