Does It Make Sense to Deploy an NMD System?
As with all policy issues, making a decision about whether to deploy an NMD system requires weighing the likely costs and benefits. On the benefits side, one needs to assess the likely operational effectiveness of such a system. On the costs side, it is important to understand and take into account the likely reactions of other states to a US deployment. We consider these issues below. Technical Feasibility vs. Operational Effectiveness The Pentagon has identified technical feasibility as the key remaining criterion for deployment of a national missile defense. The US NMD will use high-altitude hit-to-kill interceptors (which are designed to destroy their targets by ramming into them above the atmosphere), whose test record so far has been dismal. Since 1982, the United States has conducted 16 intercept tests of exo-atmospheric hit-to-kill interceptors. Only 2 of these 16 intercept tests scored hits, for a 13 percent success rate. And the test record is not getting better with time: th
