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Does Predictive Modeling Work?

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Does Predictive Modeling Work?

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As with any ground-breaking new technology, predictive modeling has attracted a coterie of detractors who say that the answers it delivers are too complex, that the language of delivery is arcane, and that the solutions are impractical. Many of these criticisms are representative of poor applications of the new techniques, rather than of the techniques themselves. Others are simply wrong. Certainly, in terms of economic payoff, predictive modeling is posting some head-turning returns. A study reported in ZDNet Australia found that: Among North American and European companies, the successful introduction and use of analytics has delivered returns on investment of anywhere from 17 percent to 2000 percent, with a median ROI of 112 percent. These kinds of numbers make a compelling argument for business analytics, and predictive modeling is a significant part of those analytics. 1 One article on predictive modeling, published in a newsletter of the Association for Computing Machinery, shows

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