Does the nature of tropical cyclone-trough interaction differ for existing storms from pre-hurricane disturbances?
An argument can be made in terms of PV dynamics that trough interactions should have similar impacts regardless of the stage of the tropical cyclone. But eye wall cycles do not occur in pre-genesis stages, and the tropical cyclone internal dynamics obviously differs greatly for a mature storm. This issue still must be resolved. 2.6 Do identifiable parameters exist for determining whether a tropical cyclone will intensify or weaken in response to an upper tropospheric trough? This is the fundamental forecast problem. Forecasters are well aware that “bad troughs” exist that produce weakening of tropical cyclones, although only one such case has appeared in the literature to our knowledge. Many researchers have speculated on this issue, but no method has proven successful. It is likely that our understanding will have to improve before such an advance can be made. 2.7 Hurricane Opal Hurricane Opal intensified in the Gulf of Mexico when an upstream trough was quite distant from the storm,
