How are temperatures predicted to rise over the next few centuries?
This depends on whether we halt the growing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Some warming is inevitable – there are time lags in the natural systems which store up warming for future decades. CO2 concentrations are currently about 35% above pre-industrial levels, storing up perhaps another degree of warming. If we can stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentration by the end of this century, below twice pre-industrial levels, we can probably limit warming to under 5 degrees. But because the gas stays in the atmosphere for a century or more, stabilisation requires cutting emissions by 70% to 80%. A tall order. However, some models predict temperature rises of 8 to 10 degrees within 200 years if we do not kick the carbon habit.
