How are these events shaping the forecast of economic growth for the near term?
• Most forecasters are suggesting that a soft-landing for the economy is probable, with a significant reduction in expected growth in the next year, but with no recession. The table below shows forecasts for the year 2001 from four groups. The forecasts done in January for the year 2001 indicate expected growth in the 2.4 percent to 2.8 percent range, clearly less than the growth of 5.0 percent that took place in 2000. Note however, that the DRI, WEFA and EIA forecasts prepared one month earlier in December, projected higher growth for the year 2001 than the forecast in January. Forecasts in February and March revised projected growth further downward because of the trends indicated by new data.
