How do forecasters know what model to use to formulate the cone of the storm?
It’s the job of a human forecaster to sort that out. There are six to 10 reliable models that forecasters can choose from to forecast a storm, hurricane or tropical depression. Each model is reliable but gives different answers. Forecasters then must take the average of their most reliable models. By carefully analyzing the details of the model and their past performance, they can sometimes get a handle on that. Models are getting better every year and Dr. Knabb said the track error is about half now thanks to the improvement of the models.
