How good are economic forecasts?
Question: I am trying to find economic forcast levels. To be specific I’m trying to find data that is at least 15 years in the future forcasting this topics: GDP trends, interest rates, money supply, inflation rates, unemployment levels, disposable and discretionary income. Can you help? Answer: No one can make economic forecasts 15 years into the future with even a slight assurance that the forecasts are true. The events of the previous day (the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks) are just one example of the millions of unknown and uncontrollable factors that affect the economy. To take a more mundane (and short-term) example: Why do you think that Alan Greenspan and the US Federal Reserve are taking such small steps to stimulate the economy — cutting the federal funds rate and the discount rate just a quarter or a half percent at a time? It’s because even the Fed’s best economists can’t predict how much effect a large cut would have; therefore, they are taking things slow and e