How is winter weather forecast or predicted?
Winter storms are forecast similar to any other type of weather. Forecasters use climatology, computer models, radar, satellite, and upper air observations to make their predictions. One of the first steps a forecaster will take is to analyze the current conditions. Surface observations are taken every hour around the U.S. The observations are fed into a computer and a surface weather map is generated. This helps a forecaster pinpoint the exact center of a winter low pressure system. From that center, they can then determine where the boundaries between cold/warm and dry/moist air exist. These observations are also ingested by computers and forecast models are issued. Forecast models are critical in prediction winter storms. They predict weather conditions at different slices of the atmosphere. Forecasters look for moisture, little spins in the atmosphere, and the jet stream at upper levels of the storm, and moisture and temperatures at the surface. The jet stream helps us predict the
