How rapid will the transition from nickel metal hydride to lithium ion batteries be for conventional hybrids?
It’s a function of sales volume. The current generation of lithium ion batteries is not any cheaper than nickel metal hydride. And they’re not proven. With a lot of the lithium ion chemistries, just sitting and doing nothing in hot weather will degrade the battery pack. The batteries will not last as long in Phoenix as Minneapolis. There’s risk with durability and reliability. In lower volume applications, new hybrids just coming out, carmakers know they’re not going to be able to capture larger market share right away. So they’re going to be lithium ion batteries starting tomorrow [See Mercedes S400 Hybrid and BMW ActiveHybrid 7]. You don’t have a large volume, so your risk is minimized and you’ve gained experience. It’s going to be cheaper in the long run, and you want to gain experience. So, you’ll see very few new hybrids using nickel metal hydride. The problem is with high volume existing hybrids. When you’re selling hundreds of thousands of Priuses globally every year, if you enc
