How severe would an avian flu pandemic be?
It is difficult to speculate. At one extreme, if the 50 percent mortality ratios now seen in Southeast Asia were to be maintained, then the human species might face extinction—but this scenario is unlikely. The 1918 pandemic was exceptionally lethal: 1 percent to 2 percent of infected cases died, killing at least 40 million people worldwide. Even if a new virus were to cause only mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7 million deaths.
Related Questions
- With dire warnings of an avian flu pandemic, and the first UK government supplies of anti-viral drugs being reserved for certain groups of people, is it time for individuals to take responsibility for their own safety and stock up online with recommended treatments such as Tamiflu?
- Is bird flu, avian flu, H1N1 the same thing as a pandemic?
- How severe would an avian flu pandemic be?
