How should one interpret the probability of high wind vicinity probability?

Many tropical cyclones come very near a coastal area and just miss bringing high winds due to changes in their forecast motion or intensity. These systems do not bring the high winds that may have been anticipated. However, tropical cyclone watches and warnings might have to be issued as precautionary measures for the threatened area. Storm preparations may have had to be taken. These near-miss cyclones will always have to be closely monitored. We arbitrarily increased our potential high wind probability by 3 times the actual radius of our actual high winds covering an area increase by a factor of 9 to accommodate the near-miss or vicinity cyclone events.  more