IS W-LAN A DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK COMPANIES?

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IS W-LAN A DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK COMPANIES?

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In this article we briefly review the theoretical fundamentals of the disruptive technology concept pioneered by Christensen (1997) and recent theoretical additions. Based on this extended theoretical insight we propose a forecasting tool to assess technologies for their disruptive characteristics to improve the precision of the disruptive technology concept and its usability for identification and forecasting. We offer a more comprehensive step-by-step approach to meet the demands of practitioners to make ex ante distinctions between disruptive technologies and other phenomena caused by emerging technologies. The proposed forecasting tool is tested on the popular prediction that wireless local area network technologies (W-LAN) will be disruptive for incumbent mobile telecommunications network companies. Our tool predicts that contrary to common knowledge W-LAN is not likely to represent a disruptive technology for the established mobile telecommunications network industry in terms of