What are Oil-Spill Trajectory Simulations?
Oil spill trajectory simulations are generated by MMS to be used to estimate spill risk. The MMS uses a numerical computer model that simulates the likely trajectory of a surface slick, represented as a point launched from locations projected onto a gridded area. For more information on the trajectory model, called the OSRA (oil spill risk analysis) model, see Ji et al. (2002; Smith et al, 1982; and LaBelle and Anderson, 1985). The points trajectory simulates a spills movement on the surface of water by using modeled ocean current and wind fields. The model uses temporally and spatially varying, numerically computed ocean currents and winds. The model tabulates the number of times that each trajectory moves across or touches a location (contact) occupied by polygons mapped on the gridded surface. These polygons represent locations of various environmental features or shoreline segments. The OSRA model compiles the number of contacts to each feature that result from the modeled trajecto
