What are the probabilities of lower or higher amounts of snow than forecast?
Lower amounts would arise if more sleet and/or rain mixes with snow than currently forecast and/or the computer models are overdoing the amount of precipitation they’re simulating. Higher amounts are possible if precipitation remains all snow and some of the wetter computer models verify (that are simulating totals in the neighborhood of 25-30″, which we think are unlikely but not implausible in a few locations). 10% chance less than 10″ 20% chance 10-16″ 55% chance 16-26″ (most likely, representing CWG’s forecast for the metro region) 15% chance 26″+ Will we see any of the dreaded wintry mix? Yes, but only to a small extent. Parts of the area may see the initial onset of precipitation as a mix, as temperatures take a couple hours to fall toward the freezing mark. The mixed precipitation will change to snow though some mixing may continue intermittently mainly south and east of the beltway through early Saturday morning. Any periods of mixing are not anticipated to prevent snowfall acc
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