What are those track and intensity models that the Atlantic forecasters are talking about in the tropical storm and hurricane Discussions?
(Track model information contributed by Sim Aberson) A variety of hurricane track forecast models are run operationally for the Atlantic hurricane basin: • The basic model that is used as a “no-skill” forecast to compare other models against is CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence), a multiple regression model that best utilizes the persistence of the motion and also incorporates climatological track information (Neumann 1972, Merrill 1980). Surprisingly, CLIPER was difficult to beat with numerical model forecasts until the 1980s. • A statistical-dynamical model, NHC90 (McAdie 1991), uses geopotential height predictors from the Aviation model to produce a track forecast four times per day. The primary synoptic time NHC90 forecasts (00 and 12 UTC) are based upon 12 h old Aviation runs. A special version of NHC90, NHC90-LATE, is run at primary synoptic times with the current Aviation run, and is available a number of hours after NHC90. Both versions of NHC90 have been run operationally si
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