What do the outlook probabilities mean?
For the day-1 outlook graphics, the percentage lines enclose the chance that the given type of severe weather (tornado, hail or damaging thunderstorm wind) will happen within roughly a 25 mile radius of any given point inside that line. For Day-2 and Day-3, the probabilities cover all severe storm hazards together. Categorical (SLGT, MDT, HIGH) labels are tied directly to the probability numbers as defined in this table for Day-1, in this table for Day-2 and this one for Day-3 outlooks.
