What does BRAINS actually predict?
The BRAINS system uses the statistical relationships between accident report variables within the U.S. Coast Guard’s Boating Accident Report Database (BARD). These relationships allow the BRAINS user to determine the probability that a specific accident could occur given the conditions that are entered by the user. BRAINS enables the user to isolate the effect of changes in a specific variable on the likelihood of a specific type of accident occurring. In addition to allowing the user to predict the likelihood of an accident occurring under common conditions, the flexibility of BRAINS allows the user to predict the likelihood of an accident under uncommon or hypothetical conditions. For example, the average length of a Personal Watercraft (PWC) in BARD is approximately nine feet. By inserting this combination of values, BRAINS will provide the user with the likelihood of a specific type of accident occurring under those typical conditions. However, what if the PWC where longer, let’s s
