What factors might influence the actual expenses under Prop. 36?
The RAND cost models assume that a quarter or more of the individuals receiving treatment would receive the most expensive form – long-term residential treatment. As this assumption indicates, choices made at the county level could greatly affect the actual costs of Prop. 36. An unknown amount of the new costs will be covered by the individuals required to seek treatment, due to a provision allowing judges to insist that offenders who can reasonably afford to must pay some or all of their own treatment costs. In its own evaluation, the Office of the Legislative Analyst simply estimated this pay-your-own-way provision would offset state and county treatment costs by several million dollars per year. Perhaps the greatest factor will be the actual number of offenders coming into the system each year. This could vary from the Legislative Analyst’s projection of 36,000 people per year for a number of reasons. Prosecutors might reduce the number of offenders charged only with drug possession
The RAND cost models assume that a quarter or more of the individuals receiving treatment would receive the most expensive form – long-term residential treatment. As this assumption indicates, choices made at the county level could greatly affect the actual costs of Prop. 36. An unknown amount of the new costs will be covered by the individuals required to seek treatment, due to a provision allowing judges to insist that offenders who can reasonably afford to must pay some or all of their own treatment costs. In its own evaluation, the Office of the Legislative Analyst simply estimated this pay-your-own-way provision would offset state and county treatment costs by several million dollars per year. Perhaps the greatest factor will be the actual number of offenders coming into the system each year. This could vary from the Legislative Analyst’s projection of 36,000 people per year for a number of reasons. Prosecutors might reduce the number of offenders charged only with drug possession
