What follows in the next decade? What do the current economic trends tell us about the future?
My sense is that in the next decade we are likely to see a number of concurrent trends. Asia, led by China and India, will lead the world in economic growth–although we will need to be careful of the kind of economic upheavals that often befall rapidly growing developing countries. Not permanent reversals, but setbacks. The West, and the US in particular, will see slower growth. The US will remain the world’s leading economic power (and also the leading military power) but its strength relative to China and others will be somewhat less. This may in turn trigger debate about which economic models are best suited to the new century–a debate that will become more furious as the world faces other shocks like we have been through in the past year shocks which will come because so little real reform will be taking place in global markets to avoid “next generation” crises associated with derivatives and other under-regulated global markets. Which are the main geopolitical consequences of th
