What is the relationship between past and future earthquakes in the same place?
In the past scientists believed that a similar-sized earthquake happens on the same fault at regular intervals. However, earthquakes are not that simple. They do not occur like clockwork in the same place. There is a margin of uncertainty in recurrence intervals between ruptures on an active fault. For example, intervals between ruptures on the South Island s Alpine Fault range from 270 years to 500 years.
