What kind of statistical findings set Moynihan on this track of examining the black family?
CHRISTOPHER JENCKS: At the time that Moynihan was writing, his biggest statistical finding was the relationship between the unemployment rate and the welfare rate, and that was the famous chart in the report. Almost immediately after he wrote that report, these two phenomena became disconnected and he then wrote some other things saying, you know, it looks as if welfare is now rising independent of the unemployment rate. Indeed, in the late 1960s, unemployment fell very drastically to the lowest levels we’ve had in the last 50 years, and yet the proportion of welfare recipients was going up during that period. So, the law that unemployment engenders welfare use, that he enunciated, broke down almost as soon as he enunciated it. That’s, of course, a history of social science laws, is that they tend to break down very soon after they’ve been announced. Since 1965, the relationship between unemployment and the welfare rolls has been very weak. There’s now a big controversy about how much
