What major simplifications and inaccuracies are there in the Uncertain Future model?
We assumed you had independent uncertainty about all the variables you put in. In reality, your uncertainty is not independent &mdash it’s easy to think of pieces of information that would change your assessment of multiple variables.For example, the model assumes the amount of hardware needed to run neuromorphic AI, and the amount of understanding and brain scanning technology needed to create neuromorphic AI, are independent. But it might be that we’ll find out we can’t make a human brain emulation work without copying the structure at the level of individual neurons, which would lead to high estimates for both. Or we might find out only a very coarse level of resolution is relevant, which would lead to low estimates for both.If some of your uncertainty comes from uncertainty about your own tendencies toward over-optimism on all technologies, or if there’s a general underlying rate of progress in society and you’re uncertain about what it will be, those are reasons to think your esti
