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Whats another litmus test for judging whether a new technology will be a successful disrupter?

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Whats another litmus test for judging whether a new technology will be a successful disrupter?

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The disruptive technology almost always takes root in a very undemanding application, and the established market leaders almost always try to cram the disruption into the established application. In so doing, they spend enormous amounts of money and fail.

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