When is typhoon melor projected to hit Tokyo Japan?
TOKYO — Typhoon Melor spared Guam and Saipan its full wrath over the weekend, but could threaten the Kanto Plain area of Japan by mid-week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Melor to curve sharply northeast at mid-morning Tuesday, skirting some 310 miles east of Okinawa and weaken as it heads toward cooler waters off mainland Japan. It is forecast to track east of Tokyo, passing 55 miles southeast of Yokosuka Naval Base at 2 a.m. Thursday, packing sustained 80-mph winds and 100-mph gusts at its center. Sunday morning Melor was a super typhoon spinning about 240 miles west-northwest of Saipan, packing sustained 167-mph winds and 200-mph gusts at its center — equal to a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. It is expected to pack sustained winds of 127 mph and 155-mph gusts when it turns toward the northeast on Tuesday. National Weather Service officials on Guam reported gusts on the island of up to 38 mph and very little rain when Melor passed to the north overnight Saturday. T
The forecast track takes it very close to Tokyo by Wednesday local time. It should not be as strong as it will move over colder water causing it to weaken. It should be noted that storms carry wave memory. This means that the storm surge and waves take longer to settle down after the storm weakens, so a coastal flooding threat remains for Japan, and should be taken seriously even as the winds slow down. A classic case of this was when Hurricane Isabel hit the US East Coast in 2003. It had winds of 155 mph a few days earlier, but came on shore as a Category 2 storm with winds around 100 mph. It still caused the worst flooding up the Chesapeake Bay into Baltimore. No guarantees for Tokyo or its surroundings. Sources: http://www.examiner.
