Will oil prices reach $100 a barrell next summer?
This was selected as Best Answer Yes. There will be peaks and valleys, but the mega-trends all support higher oil prices, as denominated in the US$. Even if the supply/demand relationship remains constant, US deficit spending and increased debt will cause commodity inflation across-the-board. Even if per-capita oil/gasoline use drops in the US, we “only” have a population of 300 million. If per-capita use in China/India (combined population of more than 2 billion) increases by a fraction of any US decrease, global demand will still increase. Finally, many oil fields currently in production are mature and will have to be replaced. New fields exist, but the geology is more complicated and extraction costs are higher. Not sure that will impact by summer, but could.
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