How long will it take for ASR to be transported by wind currents from southern to northern production areas?

Opinion varies on the time required for ASR to reach northern production areas. This could take one to several years. The movement of ASR from south to north in the United States will be different each year and will depend on where ASR is able to survive the winter, the size of the ASR population that overwinters, and weather patterns and conditions. Research shows that wind patterns are more favorable for disease movement from south to north in El Niño years.