Dave Cameron found that doing a regression comparing times and distance was futile; but that a model to predict speed produced a good formula which worked well for world records, US national records and collegiate records. He found that the model does well for post-1945 records at the 800m through the 10000m; and that from 1964 it also worked well for the marathon. The Cameron model is a = 13.49681 – 0.048865*olddist + 2.438936/(olddist**0.7905) b = 13.49681 – 0.048865*newdist + 2.438936/(newdist**0.7905) newtime = (oldtime/olddist) * (a/b) * newdist Note that the distances are in miles; the times in seconds.