How can we establish a statistically significant model that relates global warming to carbon dioxide releases?
The above analysis is, in itself, inconclusive. However, it gives clear guidance on the steps that must be taken in order to establish that carbon dioxide causes global warming. There must be a mechanistic model that clearly links atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration with global warming. It is insufficient to note that, in the laboratory, carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation. We must show that, in the atmosphere, it absorbs sufficient energy to account for the observed global warming. The analysis in this chapter also shows that any mechanistic model must have the following characteristics: • It must have no more than two adjustable parameters. • If it has two adjustable parameters, it must fit the observed temperature data with a mean error of significantly less than 0.12 degrees C. If it fits the observed temperature data with a mean error of 0.12 degrees C (or more), it must have not more than one adjustable parameter. It is worth noting what is meant by an “adjustable para
