Should coastal residents prepare differently if an active or inactive season is predicted?
Coastal residents need to prepare for every hurricane season, regardless of seasonal predictions. There is inherent uncertainty in seasonal predictions. Also, seasonal forecasts do not say anything about when or where storms are going to make landfall. This information is typically only available 3-5 days before a storm actually makes U.S. landfall. Coastal residents need to realize that the probability of landfall for any one point along the coastline is quite small in any year. However, one must also realize that it only takes one storm making landfall in your neighborhood to make it an active season for you. Major hurricanes have made U.S. landfall in inactive seasons (e.g., Hurricane Alicia – 1983 and Hurricane Andrew – 1992).
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- Should coastal residents prepare differently if an active or inactive season is predicted?
