What is a marginal seat?
Seat status is generally based on the two party preferred results of the last election. However, in seats where Labor and the Coalition were not the final two candidates, the seat status is based on the two candidate preferred result (eg marginal independent). The two party preferred figure refers to the number of votes received by the Labor and Coalition candidates after a full distribution of preferences. The two candidate preferred figure refers to the number of votes received by Independent and major party candidates after a full distribution of preferences. Where a winning candidate receives less than 56% of the two party preferred vote the seat is classified as ‘marginal’; 56-60% is classified as ‘fairly safe’; and more than 60% is considered ‘safe’.
