What is the tornado forecast for next spring? Are there going to be tornadoes in Iowa the week of next October 5?
We just don’t know. Tornado forecasting today and tomorrow is quite difficult already. Specific severe weather forecasting more than days in advance is little more than guessing, or using tornado climatology for the forecast area and time of year. For that reason, there is no such thing as a long range severe storm or tornado forecast. There are simply too many small-scale variables involved which we cannot reliably measure or model weeks or months ahead of time; so no scientific forecasters even attempt them. Perhaps, someday, the density of weather observations and atmospheric modeling capabilities will advance enough to allow us to do severe storms forecasting many days out with some degree of accuracy better than a coin toss. We are a long, long way from that kind of forecasting!
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