Are EMS call volume predictions based on demand pattern analysis accurate?
Most EMS systems determine the number of crews they will deploy in their communities and when those crews will be scheduled based on anticipated call volumes. Many systems use historical data to calculate their anticipated call volumes, a method of prediction known as demand pattern analysis. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of call volume predictions calculated using demand pattern analysis. METHODS: Seven EMS systems provided 73 consecutive weeks of hourly call volume data. The first 20 weeks of data were used to calculate three common demand pattern analysis constructs for call volume prediction: average peak demand (AP), smoothed average peak demand (SAP), and 90th percentile rank (90%R). The 21st week served as a buffer. Actual call volumes in the last 52 weeks were then compared to the predicted call volumes by using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: There were 61,152 hourly observations in the test period. All three constructs accurately predicted peaks and troughs in call vol
