How well do the predictive models work?
We tested the model at Huntington using data collected during the recreational season of 2006. The model correctly predicted recreational water quality 80% of the time and worked better than the previous day’s E. coli (the current method used by most beach managers), which correctly predicted recreational water quality 57% of the time. False positive responses for the model were provided 10% of time; that means that the nowcast incorrectly predicted that the standard was exceeded on 6 out of 59 days that the standard was actually NOT exceeded. False negative responses for the model were higher – 42%. That means that the nowcast incorrectly predicted that the standard would NOT be exceeded on 11 out of 26 days that the standard was actually exceeded. Although the false negative rate for the nowcast is higher than we would like, the nowcast still provides more accurate information and better estimates of public health risk than the use of the current method. During 2006, the current meth
