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If back-to-school sales are soft, does that mean retailers should expect a tepid holiday shopping season?

April 26, 2017back-to-school expect holiday mean retailers sales season shopping soft tepid

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If back-to-school sales are soft, does that mean retailers should expect a tepid holiday shopping season?

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I don’t think there is a big correlation between back-to-school and holiday spending. Back-to-school is necessary spending. People buy what they need — shoes, notebooks — and they want to pay as a little as possible for these items. Christmas shopping is way more discretionary and emotional. I think Christmas spending will be stronger than back-to-school spending. As long as unemployment, the stock market, and housing prices hold steady — and inflation doesn’t come into play — the psychology at Christmas will be far better than it is today. Which retailers stand to win and which stand to lose? The strong will get stronger, and the weak will get weaker. Companies that are financially stronger will be able to invest more right now in merchandise and services. In office products, which is an area I happen to know well, Staples will continue to take share from Office Depot (ODP, Fortune 500) and OfficeMax (OMX, Fortune 500). That makes sense. But what about a company like Best Buy? It’