Is the relationship between the Great Lakes ice cover and climate patterns statistically significant?
This work is based on previous projects titled “Great Lakes Ice Cycle” conducted by Assel. This proposed study will use generalized statistical analyses of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and climate GCM products along with historical sea ice observations including recent satellite measurements to analyze the statistical relationship between lake ice cover and climate indices in both spatial and temporal spaces. First, the EOF analysis will be applied to SLP, SAT, and 700 hPa geopotential height fields to reveal the AO/NAO (first mode) and PNA (second mode). The time series of these two modes can be used to conduct linear regression to sea ice cover. The lake ice composite analyses will be conducted based on the indices. Then the difference between the AO/NAO+ and AO/NAO- phases will be tested by student t-test. The similar ice composite analysis is applied to the El Nino and La Nina phases. Furthermore, a linear regression of the AO/NAO and ENSO indices will be applied to sea ice concentrati
