Scientists can predict the weather next week. Why do they think they can predict the climate in 50 years?
If you flip a coin, you can’t predict whether it will land as heads or tails, but you can be absolutely confident that you have a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. Predicting climate is predicting the probability of events, not the actual occurrence of events. Global warming is a forced problem. Imagine loaded dice, and that every week you put more loading weight in them. The loading factor here is CO2. More and more of it every year, known for 100 years to warm the planet.
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- How can climate scientists project what the climate might be like decades from now when it’s impossible to predict the weather for more than a week out?
- Scientists can predict the weather next week. Why do they think they can predict the climate in 50 years?
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