What are projections and what is the methodology used to develop them? In essence, is there a formula the County uses?
Every fall, the District’s demographers prepare five-year enrollment projections for each school in Broward County. The projections show the future enrollment trend at each school by giving the estimated number of students expected to be attending each school, for each year, over the next five years. To project future students by grade for each school, a statistical Cohort Projection model uses an aging concept moving groups of students into the future and increases or decreases their numbers based upon past trends. Once initial projections are prepared, many checks are performed to determine if projections are reasonable. When preparing enrollment projections, the District demographer meets with municipalities in order to obtain current certificate of occupancy information for all new and ongoing development. The cohort projection is then adjusted manually to reflect incoming students from the new developments. The District relies extensively on the cooperation and coordination with t
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