What is Bayesian Inference?
In science, experiment is the ultimate criterion for determining the validity of a hypothesis. Rarely, however, can an experimental result be obtained that validates one hypothesis and rules out all others. More commonly, the experimental result strengthens the support for some hypotheses and weakens the support for others. As more data are collected, it becomes progressively easier to identify the most likely hypothesis. At some point, the evidence is considered strong enough to accept or reject a given hypothesis, even if certainty is not achieved. How much evidence is enough? Consider the following scenario. I prepare card decks in two different ways. Some decks, called “low decks,” consist of ten aces, nine 2s, eight 3s, and so on, down to two 9s and one 10. Others, called “high decks,” are prepared in the reverse fashion: one ace, two 2s, three 3s, and so on, up to nine 9s and ten 10s. Both decks thus have 55 cards. If you draw one card at random, can you tell whether it came from
