What is the probability that a new allele will be lost in the next generation?
New alleles are the result of mutation. When that allele appears in the population, it is at a very low frequency, and can be lost very easily. For example, consider an allele arising in an individual. Half of his gametes will contain the allele. Therefore, his offspring (assuming, of course, he finds a mate and has any offspring at all) only have a 50% chance of carrying the allele. If he from a species with low fecundity, there is a very good possibility that none of his offspring will have the allele and it will be lost from the population. It is estimated that only 1/3 of new mutations make it into the next generation because most are lost due to chance factors.
