What processes determine the predictability of climate fluctuations in the Atlantic- European region?
The fourth component of the COAPEC programme employs the tools and methodologies of the first three components to investigate which processes in the coupled system influence predictability for the Atlantic/European sector. There is evidence that anomalies in Atlantic sea surface temperature can be a useful predictor of seasonal conditions over the U.K., especially in summer (Colman, 1997). Recent success at ECMWF in predicting the seasonal mean climate for Europe during the strong El Niño of 1997/98 (Stockdale et al. 1998) has emphasised the need for understanding the influence of ENSO. On decadal timescales there is evidence of predictability in North Atlantic SST (Sutton and Allen, 1997). The influence on the atmosphere of these SST fluctuations appears to be weak but may nonetheless give rise to some useful predictability (Venzke et al., 1998). Much more research is needed to fully assess the predictability of decadal fluctuations in the climate (Griffies and Bryan, 1997). The use o
