What is the role of air-sea interaction in tropical Atlantic predictability?
Although not as well-known as El Nio, the tropical Atlantic region is perhaps one of the regions of the world which has a rather predictable climate, at least on seasonal timescales. Some of this predictive skill arises simply from the influence of the adjoining Pacific El Nio phenomenon. The remainder of the predictive skill is believed to arise from air-sea interaction that is local to the tropical Atlantic. We have carried out several studies using a hierarchy of coupled and uncoupled numerical models which show that thermodynamic air-sea interaction may play an important role in persisting sea surface temperature anomalies and make them more predictable.
